About

If time series is a kite,

  • Trend: String that “pulls” or “leads” the kite to its “expected” path
  • Seasonal: The wind is always stronger at noon because the sun is out. (Predictable by time).
  • Cyclical: A “Storm System” is passing through. The wind howls for 3 days, then it’s calm for 10 days, then another storm lasts for 5 days. It is a long-term wave of energy that lingers, but there is no calendar for when the next storm starts.
  • Irregular: unpredictable deviations